Spatial econometric analysis of interdependencies and environmental dynamics in the Black Sea region

The Black Sea region is characterized by diverse economies, energy structures, and environmental policies, leading to significant spatial interdependencies in CO2 emissions. This study examines the spatial dynamics of CO2 emissions in the region using spatial econometric models, including Spatial Autoregressive (SAR), Spatial Error (SEM), and Spatial Durbin Models (SDM). The analysis covers the period 1990–2023, investigating the effects of GDP, renewable energy consumption, urbanization, and foreign direct investment (FDI) on emissions. The findings reveal strong spatial spillover effects, where CO2 emissions in one country influence neighboring regions. Renewable energy consumption significantly reduces emissions, both directly and through spillovers, while GDP and urbanization contribute to higher emissions. FDI has a negative effect on CO2 emissions, suggesting its role in promoting clean technologies and sustainable investments, depending on host country policies. These results highlight the need for regional coordination in addressing environmental challenges. Joint renewable energy projects, sustainable urban planning, and green investment incentives are important for reducing emissions. Policymakers should consider cross-border cooperation, particularly between EU and non-EU Black Sea countries, to strengthen environmental policies and accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy.