An Adaptive Bidding Strategy for Virtual Power Plants in Day-Ahead Markets Under Multiple Uncertainties

To address the challenges posed by multiple uncertainties in modern power systems to the market bidding of Virtual Power Plants (VPPs), this paper proposes an adaptive bidding strategy based on Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL). First, a heterogeneous VPP aggregation model integrating dedicated energy storage, Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G), and flexible loads is constructed, incorporating complex physical and operational constraints. Second, to overcome the “myopic” local optimality problem of traditional DRL in temporal arbitrage tasks, a potential-based reward shaping mechanism linked to future price trends is designed to guide the agent toward long-term optimal strategies. Finally, multi-dimensional comparative experiments and mechanism analyses are conducted in a simulated day-ahead electricity market. Simulation results demonstrate the following: (1) The proposed algorithm exhibits robust convergence stability and effectively handles stochastic noise in market prices and renewable generation. (2) Economically, the strategy significantly outperforms the rule-based strategy and remains highly competitive with the deterministic-optimization benchmark under perfect-information assumptions. (3) Mechanism analysis further reveals that the DRL agent breaks through the rigid logic of fixed thresholds, learning a non-linear dynamic game mechanism based on “Price-SOC” states, thereby achieving full-depth utilization of energy storage resources. This work provides an interpretable data-driven paradigm for intelligent VPP decision-making in uncertain environments.