Multiscale Morphology-Based Detection of Shoreline Change Hotspots from Aerial Imagery Under Fluctuating Water Levels

Shoreline change detection from remote sensing imagery remains challenging in environments subject to water level fluctuations, as remotely sensed shoreline positions reflect instantaneous hydrodynamic states rather than true geomorphic change. In the Great Lakes, seasonal and short-term water level variations can produce apparent shoreline shifts unrelated to sediment dynamics. Reliable calibration with bathymetry and water level data can mitigate this effect, but such data are often unavailable or difficult to obtain for many coastal and lacustrine systems worldwide. To address this limitation, we proposed a morphology-based framework that quantifies geometric change between successive shoreline curves using a discrete Fréchet distance, a modified Euclidean distance and a Union distance metric. Rather than relying solely on cross-shore displacements, the approach leverages shape similarity to differentiate water-level-driven shifts from true morphological change. We evaluated the framework across three spatial scales (100 m, 500 m, and 1000 m) along 125 km of southwestern Lake Michigan coastline using 2010 and 2020 aerial imagery, benchmarking against water-level-calibrated DSAS erosion hotspots. The Fréchet distance improved monotonically with scale, achieving strong agreement at 1000 m (F1 = 0.84, Spearman ρ = 0.79) but limited reliability at 100 m. While individual morphology-based metrics appeared competitive with or inferior to uncalibrated DSAS at each scale, the union of both distances substantially outperformed uncalibrated DSAS at management-relevant scales (F1 of 0.64 vs. 0.50 at 500 m and 0.79 vs. 0.42 at 1000 m), reflecting the complementary nature of shape-based and displacement-based detection. The Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) further identified gentle nearshore slopes and moderate separation from engineered structures as the geomorphic conditions under which the morphology-based and calibrated erosion indicators converged most closely (in-box F1 = 0.92 at 1000 m and 0.72 at 500 m). These results suggest that the proposed framework, particularly the complementary union of both metrics, provides a practical, calibration-free alternative for multiscale shoreline change screening in lacustrine and microtidal, data-limited environments, while local-scale applications still benefit from explicit water-level correction.