Discharge magnitude drives interannual variation in distribution of the invertebrate host <i>Manayunkia occidentalis</i> of the salmon parasite <i>Ceratonova shasta</i>

ABSTRACT Objective The objective of this study was to evaluate statistical evidence for relationships between flow event characteristics and annelid host distribution, an important and necessary step toward providing and justifying management actions. Declines in Klamath River salmon have been attributed to infection and disease that are caused by the myxozoan parasite Ceratonova shasta. Flow manipulation has been used to manage risk of C. shasta for juvenile salmonids in this system. One mechanism by which flow-related disturbance can reduce the risk of C. shasta infection for salmon is by reducing populations of the obligate invertebrate host Manayunkia occidentalis. We previously demonstrated that hydraulic conditions during peak discharge events drive the distribution of M. occidentalis and suggested that high-magnitude flow events would be effective for reducing the distribution of the annelid host. However, evidence of the effects of flow events on M. occidentalis was needed to support the use of flow management. Methods To address this knowledge gap, we leveraged a multiyear data set to estimate relationships between the distribution the annelid host and the characteristics of each discharge event. We measured the presence or absence of M. occidentalis at spatially georeferenced sampling locations, stratified across the range of hydraulic and substrate conditions in three reaches annually from 2012 to 2020. Results During the study period, the magnitude of peak discharge ranged from 52.4 to 314.3 m3/s. The inclusion of seven additional years’ data in the base model (hierarchical; annual-level covariate + previous “single year” model) resulted in parameter estimates that were similar to those that were derived for the previous (2016) model, supporting that substrate, depth, and velocity during peak discharge predicted annelid distribution. The magnitude model (base model + annual-level covariate for peak discharge) showed evidence of a strong negative association with annelid presence (95% of all Markov chain–Monte Carlo draws were negative). Every 101.9 m3/s increase in peak discharge was associated with an estimated 39% decrease in the odds of annelid presence. The estimated effect of magnitude on the probability of annelid presence was illustrated in the contrast between low- and high-magnitude peak discharge scenarios. For both scenarios, the effects of depth, velocity at peak discharge, and substrate, consistent with the previous model (2016), were evident, as was the further reduction in probability of annelid presence at the higher peak discharge. However, under the low-magnitude discharge scenario, M. occidentalis were predicted to be present on smaller less stable substrates and at a wider range of depths and velocities than they were under the high-magnitude discharge scenario. In contrast to the covariate for magnitude, the inclusion of a duration covariate did not show a strong relationship with annelid distribution, which we attributed to the lack of variation in this covariate during the study period. Conclusions This work provides quantitative evidence that high-magnitude peak discharge flow events lead to lower probabilities of annelid host presence. Lower probabilities of annelid hosts are indicative of a reduced distribution of the M. occidentalis host and in turn reduced risk of C. shasta for salmon.