Integrating InSAR and Channel Steepness for AI-Based Coseismic Landslide Modeling in the Nepal Himalaya

Earthquake-induced landslides in active orogens such as the Nepal Himalaya pose severe threats to lives, infrastructure, and post-disaster recovery. While machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) approaches to coseismic landslide susceptibility mapping have advanced considerably, spaceborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) products, particularly line-of-sight (LOS) displacement and coherence-based damage proxy maps (DPMs), remain underutilized in event-based frameworks. This study develops and evaluates a multi-factor coseismic landslide probability model that integrates InSAR-derived deformation metrics with geomorphic and hydrologic predictors to support rapid post-earthquake hazard assessment. Using the 25 April 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake as a case study, LOS displacement was derived from ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 ScanSAR interferometry, and the normalized channel steepness index (Ksn) was computed from a digital elevation model. Fourteen conditioning factors were used to train five architectures: Random Forest (RF), XGBoost, CNN, U-Net, and DeepLabV3. Spatial autocorrelation was mitigated using a leave-one-basin-out three-fold spatial cross-validation strategy, with models evaluated on a patch-based domain comprising 655,360 pixels at a positive-class prevalence of 6.35%, establishing a no-skill AUC-PR baseline of 0.0635. InSAR integration consistently improved model performance under high class imbalance, increasing AUC-PR across all models by 7.8% to 17.3%. Random Forest achieved the highest AUC-PR (0.7940, nearly 12.5 times the baseline) and CSI (0.3027), providing the best balance between landslide recall (88.09%) and non-landslide specificity (88.68%) with the lowest false alarm rate (11.32%). XGBoost attained the highest AUC-ROC (0.9501) but exhibited lower recall (83.73%) and poorer calibration (Brier = 0.1397). Among DL models, DeepLabV3 produced the best-calibrated probabilities (Brier = 0.0693) and the highest CSI (0.2307), while U-Net offered the most balanced DL performance and CNN achieved the highest recall (92.40%) at the expense of elevated false alarms. Permutation feature importance identified Ksn as the dominant predictor, highlighting the strong tectono-geomorphic control on coseismic landslide occurrence. These results demonstrate that integrating InSAR-derived products substantially enhances landslide hazard assessment and supports more reliable rapid response in the Nepal Himalaya.