Life-history simulations reveal MPA benefits for Yellow Sea porpoise populations

Marine protected areas are widely regarded as a cornerstone of global strategies to safeguard marine biodiversity, yet their effectiveness for mobile marine mammals remains uncertain. This study evaluates how different MPA configurations influence the population performance of the East Asian finless porpoise ( Neophocaena asiaeorientalis sunameri ), a coastal marine mammal facing intense anthropogenic pressures in the Yellow Sea. Using a spatially explicit, energetics‑driven individual‑based life history model, we simulated porpoise movement, survival, growth, and reproduction under three management scenarios: (1) no MPAs, (2) the current MPA network, and (3) an expanded, spatially cohesive MPA network covering 30% of marine habitat in line with the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. The model incorporates simplified representations of prey dynamics and ecological variability to capture key processes influencing trophic support in coastal ecosystems. Results showed that the absence of MPAs was associated with lower simulated prey availability, declining energy budgets, reduced reproduction, and overall population decline. The current MPA network offered partial refuge, slowing prey depletion and modestly improving demographic performance. In contrast, the 30% MPA scenario maintained higher prey biomass, enhanced energy acquisition, and supported greater survival and reproductive output, demonstrating clear benefits of well‑designed, ecologically representative MPAs for sustaining marine mammal populations. Sensitivity analyses further indicated that the relative differences among management scenarios were robust across plausible parameter ranges. Our findings highlight that MPAs, when strategically planned to encompass key habitats and trophic resources, can provide both spatial refuge and trophic support for marine mammals. This work underscores the importance of integrating species‑specific ecology and energetics into marine spatial planning to better understand potential conservation outcomes under the global 30×30 agenda. • Developed an energetics-driven individual-based model for the East Asian finless porpoise. • Simulated population dynamics under no-MPA, current-MPA, and 30% MPA scenarios. • Spatially cohesive 30% MPAs enhanced survival, reproduction, and trophic stability.