Global temperature trends in the satellite era: evidence from MODIS LST and long-record weather stations

This paper examines recent land surface temperature (LST) trends using globally gridded satellite data and benchmarks them against long‑record observations from land‑based weather stations. Drawing on four MODIS Terra and Aqua Collection 6.1 LST products at 0.05° resolution, the analysis uses over 160 billion quality‑filtered daily observations to estimate grid‑wise trends and global anomaly trends with robust inference. Over 2001–2019 (Terra) and 2003–2020 (Aqua), unified global temperature trends range from about 0.02 to 0.04 °C per year, with nighttime warming more than daytime warming. Comparable fixed‑effects estimates from 992 long‑record GHCN stations show positive but generally smaller warming rates over the same periods. Extending the station record back to the late nineteenth century reveals that many of the strongest 18 and 19‑year warming episodes occurred before 1940, when cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions were around one-tenth of what they are today. Together, the satellite‑based and station‑based analyses provide an empirical reference for situating recent global temperature trends within both the satellite era and the longer instrumental record. Policy assessment of climate interventions should account for the existence of higher historical warming episodes at vastly lower anthropogenic CO2 emissions.