Care leaver outcomes for children in children’s homes: A retrospective cohort study using national administrative data for England

Young people leaving care face significant challenges in housing, education, and employment, with those from children’s homes experiencing the poorest outcomes. This paper reports on a national analysis of these outcomes in England using linked administrative data from the Children Looked After (CLA) and Children in Need (CIN) datasets. Five birth cohorts of young people who aged out of care between 2016 and 2020 (n≈40,000) were followed to age 21. Adjusted Poisson regression models examined predictors of unsuitable accommodation and being not in education, employment or training (NEET), focusing on child characteristics, care histories, and final placements. Care leavers who had at least one children’s home placement (n≈8,500) were substantially more disadvantaged than their peers: 18% lived in unsuitable accommodation and 26% were continuously NEET, compared with 13% and 14% respectively for all care leavers. Placement instability, multiple care episodes, and final placements in supported or semi-independent accommodation were strong predictors of poor outcomes, even after adjustment. Early entry into care improved outcomes for most young people, but not for those from children’s homes. Ethnic disparities were also evident, with Black and Mixed heritage care leavers more likely to experience unsuitable housing. The findings highlight inequalities in the transition to adulthood for residential care leavers. Policy implications include strengthening the transition pathways of young people in care, improving regulation and support in semi-independent provision, and addressing placement instability and sufficiency problems in the care system.