Techno-economic feasibility assessment of temperature vacuum swing adsorption using metal–organic frameworks for direct air capture in the UAE

• TVSA was identified as the most suitable DAC pathway for UAE climatic conditions • MIL-101(Cr)–PEI-800 monolith achieved 94.46% CO 2 capture efficiency • Pilot-scale system captured 31.1 kg CO 2 day −1 under ambient UAE conditions • Steam-assisted regeneration dominated energy demand at 38.46 GJ tCO 2 −1 • Scale-up and waste-heat integration are key pathways to reducing DAC costs in the UAE Direct air capture (DAC) has emerged as a critical negative-emissions technology for meeting national and global decarbonisation targets. However, its feasibility under region-specific climatic and economic conditions remains insufficiently explored, particularly in the Gulf region. This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic assessment of a Temperature–Vacuum Swing Adsorption (TVSA) system employing MIL-101(Cr)–PEI-800-coated monolithic structures for DAC in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The analysis integrates equilibrium-based process simulation, energy modelling, bottom-up cost estimation, and sensitivity and scenario analyses to evaluate system performance under representative UAE conditions. Results indicate a CO 2 working capacity of 0.87 mmol/g and a capture efficiency of 94.46%, yielding 31.1 kg/day of CO 2 removal for a single monolith. A dedicated quantitative analysis of water co-adsorption under UAE operating conditions reveals that water co-desorption, rather than CO 2 desorption, accounts for the dominant thermal load, contributing 72.53% to the total specific energy demand of 63.21 GJ/tCO 2 . The baseline levelised cost of direct air capture (LCOD) for the pilot-scale, diesel-powered configuration is estimated at USD 4,817.61/tCO 2 , ruling out its economic feasibility at this scale and level of energy dependency. A sensitivity analysis across six parameters identifies economies of scale, diesel fuel price, and waste heat integration as the dominant LCOD drivers. Scenario analysis shows that combining large-scale deployment with full waste-heat substitution and solar electricity yields a best-case LCOD of USD 40.47/tCO 2 , surpassing the aspirational DAC target of USD 100/tCO 2 .These findings provide a replicable, quantitative framework for region-specific DAC feasibility assessment and offer actionable guidance for research prioritisation, investment planning, and policy design for DAC deployment in the UAE and the broader Gulf regions.