Integrating landscape ecological risk and ecosystem services for ecological zoning and driver analysis in Luo River Watershed in the eastern part of the Qinling Mountains, China

Integrating landscape ecological risk (LER) and ecosystem services (ESs) for ecological zoning facilitates precise identification of ecological issues and management strategy formulation. However, existing research lacks systematic exploration from the multidimensional perspectives of clustering, correlation and dynamics, and rarely integrates ecological zoning results to conduct differentiated analyses of driving forces. Therefore, this research focuses on the changes of LER and ESs within a watershed in the eastern part of the Qinling Mountains and conducts ecological zoning to support ecological management. The study period spans from 2001 to 2023. This research conducted LER assessment and quantified the integrated ES (IES). Through spatial correlation analysis, geographically weighted regression and dynamic analysis, it systematically revealed the spatial associations and evolution patterns between LER and IES. Finally, ecological zoning was performed based on LER and IES, and the XGBoost model was employed to identify key drivers across different regions, proposing ecological restoration and management strategies. Research findings indicate that the study area exhibited a declining trend in LER and an increasing trend in IES. The global Moran's I values between LER and IES consistently remained below -0.7, indicating a significant spatial negative correlation, primarily manifesting in two clustering modes of high-low and low-high. The degree of negative correlation exhibited characteristics of higher values in the west than in the east, with negatively correlated areas accounting for nearly 90% of the total area. Reducing LER contributes to enhancing IES. The study area was divided primarily into ecological restoration zone and ecological conservation zone. Furthermore, slope, nighttime light and NDVI were identified as key factors influencing LER and IES. This research comprehensively examines the interrelationship between LER and IES, and analyzes driving forces combined with ecological zoning. It provides valuable reference for formulating regional ecological management strategies and advancing sustainable development. • The relationship between LER and IES was assessed from multiple perspectives. • Identify that LER and IES generally exhibit a trade-off relationship. • Integrate LER and IES for ecological zoning. • Reveal differences in the drivers of LER and IES across different ecological zones.