Predictors of authorised, unauthorised and persistent absence among secondary school pupils in Scotland

Abstract This article examines the factors associated with persistent absenteeism (an absence rate of 10% or higher) and authorised and unauthorised absence among secondary school pupils in Scotland. Using linked administrative data, the analysis focuses on secondary school stages S1–S6 in three academic years. The analytical approach involves mixed‐effects modelling to predict probabilities of persistent absenteeism, followed by multilevel negative binomial modelling to identify predictors of authorised and unauthorised absence. Key variables of interest include registration for free school meals (FSM), care experience defined as having ever been looked after by the local authority, additional support needs (ASN), mental health prescriptions and health conditions of children and parents. Random effects of local authorities and schools are considered. Persistent absenteeism is strongly associated with low income, proxied by FSM registration. Pupils registered for free school meals at any point in their educational trajectory are twice as likely to be persistently absent compared to their peers. Authorised absences are linked to FSM registration, all additional support needs except being identified as ‘more able’ and long‐term health conditions of children and parents. Unauthorised absences are linked to FSM registration, care experience and especially additional support needs related to social–emotional needs and family circumstances. These results provide a detailed picture of adverse influences on secondary school pupils' attendance and uncover how poverty acts as an amplifier of these adverse influences. To address these patterns on a structural level, policy needs to target the combination of disadvantages, particularly poverty and mental health, on attendance at school.