Projected twelve-fold growth in municipal solid waste generation calls for urgent techno-policy intervention across urban India

Abstract Contemporary consumption patterns are intensifying the municipal solid waste (MSW) crisis across the Global South. In urban India, encompassing both major metropolitan areas and more than 4,000 statutory towns, MSW has emerged as a major environmental and development challenge, shaped by long-standing systemic inefficiencies in waste management. In this article, we present a data-driven analysis of post-independence trends in MSW generation, waste composition, and urban policy development across India. We show that annual MSW generation has increased approximately tenfold since 1947, reaching about 58.5 million tonnes (Mt). Extrapolation of historical trends suggests that Indian cities could generate about 153 Mt of MSW by 2050. However, under conditions of rapid socioeconomic transformation, more material-intensive consumption trajectories could raise annual MSW generation to 206–287 Mt under modest consumption pathways and to 436–711 Mt under high-consumption lifestyles. This projected five- to twelve-fold increase in annual MSW generation over the coming decades will require major expansion of waste management infrastructure and the implementation of effective techno-policy interventions. We therefore propose a set of systemic interventions to manage projected MSW flows and support a circular urban material system through coordinated implementation from local to national scales. With appropriate contextual adaptation, the insights and strategies developed in this study can help advance circular economy and net-zero ambitions in the MSW sector across the Global South.