From disillusionment to devotion: How perceptions of social mobility influence religious beliefs through attitudes toward government in China

While interest in the determinants of religiosity has grown, few studies have explored the role of social mobility in shaping religious beliefs. This study examines the relationship between perceptions of upward and downward social mobility (PUSM/PDSM) and religiosity in China using a diagonal reference model. Drawing on the Chinese Social Survey, we found no significant relationship between PUSM and religious beliefs, whereas PDSM was positively associated with religiosity. Further analysis revealed that political trust and perceptions of government performance mediated the link between PDSM and religious beliefs. These findings highlight religion’s role as a coping mechanism during socioeconomic hardship, suggesting that faith in a higher power may compensate for declining trust in political institutions. Given China’s strong secular tradition, stringent religious regulations, and the availability of alternative coping mechanisms, it is unlikely that religiosity will see a significant rise in the near future despite potential growth at the grassroots level.