Dynamics of Leopard Occupancy and Detection Amid Human Disturbance and Habitat Fragmentation in Gautala-Autramghat Wildlife Sanctuary, Maharashtra, Western India

Understanding the occupancy and distribution of elusive species like the leopard (Panthera pardus) is critical for effective wildlife conservation, particularly in fragmented landscapes with substantial human activity. Leopard occupancy and detection probabilities were modelled based on ecological and anthropogenic variables, including human disturbance, livestock presence, proximity to roads, habitat fragmentation, and distance to water sources. The mixed deciduous forest significantly enhanced occupancy, with a beta coefficient (\(\hat{β}\) = 1.65), while fragmented habitats (\(\hat{β}\) = -0.67) and livestock presence (\(\hat{β}\) = -0.22) negatively impacted occupancy and detection. Detection probability was further reduced by human and livestock presence. Roads and scrubland had no significant effect on occupancy. We estimated a naïve occupancy rate of 0.75, with a model-averaged occupancy (ψ̂) of 0.69, covering approximately 179.4 km². These findings underscore the need for a landscape-level approach to manage human disturbance and habitat fragmentation amid increasing demands for natural resources. Prioritizing the conservation of deciduous forests is essential. By examining factors that affect occupancy, this study provides valuable guidance for conservation aimed at reducing human-wildlife conflict. The results offer critical insights for safeguarding leopard populations and their ecosystems in similar landscapes worldwide, highlighting the importance of proactive habitat management.