Uneven provincial pathways to China’s land-use carbon emissions peak

China’s commitment to carbon neutrality necessitates precise spatial management of land-use carbon emissions (LCE), yet subnational heterogeneity of mitigation potential remains inadequately quantified. Here, we combine retrospective analysis (2000–2020) with future scenario projections (2020–2100) across 30 Chinese provinces, revealing substantial regional disparities in emission trajectories and peak timings. In historical LCE, indirect emissions linked to energy consumption exhibited pronounced spatial polarization, particularly in northern provinces dominated by heavy industries, whereas direct emissions from terrestrial ecosystems remained relatively stable. Scenario analyses demonstrate national LCE will peak around 2030–2035, yet nearly half of the provinces will experience delayed peaks. Emission hotspots are projected to shift southward, exacerbating pressures on southeastern provinces characterized by rapid urban growth and constrained carbon sink capacities. Our findings highlight the critical need for regional mitigation strategies that jointly consider emission peak timing, magnitude, and long-term reduction trajectories, informing targeted governance towards China’s climate goals. China’s national land-use carbon emissions will peak around 2030–2035, yet nearly half of the provinces exhibit delayed peaks, and hotspots are projected to shift southward, exacerbating pressures in rapidly urbanizing regions, according to scenario-based model simulations.