Advances in Similar Day Methods for Short-Term Load Forecasting for Power Systems

Short-term load forecasting is essential for the reliable, secure, efficient, and economic operation of modern power systems and electricity markets. Among many forecasting strategies, the similar day (SD) approach for short-term load forecasting was among the earliest used to assess power demand and remains one of the most intuitive and widely adopted techniques worldwide. However, over time, increasing system complexity, richer datasets, and advances in computational intelligence have led to the evolution of SD methodologies beyond heuristic-based rule formulations. This work presents a study of the relevant literature on short-term load forecasting using SD methods reported between 2000 and 2025. This study analyzes how similarity is defined, how forecasts are generated, and how both stages interact within the complete forecasting process in the reviewed literature. Based on these criteria, a unified taxonomy is proposed to classify SD methods into conventional, intelligent, and hybrid formulations. This study provides insight into the methodologies, their performance, and the systems in which they have been tested. The results show that SD-based approaches remain competitive for short-term forecasting and that incorporating artificial intelligence techniques can further enhance their accuracy.

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Publication Details

Journal
Forecasting
Published
2026-04-10
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast8020032
Primary Topic
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
Type
article
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article

Advances in Similar Day Methods for Short-Term Load Forecasting for Power Systems

Luis Conde-López, Gerardo Ruiz-Chavarría, Mónica Borunda, Guadalupe Lopez Lopez et al.
Forecasting
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
article

Advances in Similar Day Methods for Short-Term Load Forecasting for Power Systems

Luis Conde-López, Gerardo Ruiz-Chavarría, Mónica Borunda, Guadalupe Lopez Lopez, Edgardo de Jesús Carrera Avendaño, Victor M. Alvarado
article en

Abstract

Short-term load forecasting is essential for the reliable, secure, efficient, and economic operation of modern power systems and electricity markets. Among many forecasting strategies, the similar day (SD) approach for short-term load forecasting was among the earliest used to assess power demand and remains one of the most intuitive and widely adopted techniques worldwide. However, over time, increasing system complexity, richer datasets, and advances in computational intelligence have led to the evolution of SD methodologies beyond heuristic-based rule formulations. This work presents a study of the relevant literature on short-term load forecasting using SD methods reported between 2000 and 2025. This study analyzes how similarity is defined, how forecasts are generated, and how both stages interact within the complete forecasting process in the reviewed literature. Based on these criteria, a unified taxonomy is proposed to classify SD methods into conventional, intelligent, and hybrid formulations. This study provides insight into the methodologies, their performance, and the systems in which they have been tested. The results show that SD-based approaches remain competitive for short-term forecasting and that incorporating artificial intelligence techniques can further enhance their accuracy.

ForecastingVol. 8(2)
Centro Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo Tecnológico (MX), Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (MX)
Openalex Percentile: Top 27%
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
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