Do lower preference transfers assist moderate political parties in deeply divided societies? Evidence from local elections in Northern Ireland since 1973

One of the stated advantages of the Single Transferable Vote (STV) voting system in deeply divided societies is that voters are given the opportunity to express support for a range of parties. Proponents argue that this will result in voters casting their second or lower preferences across community lines in ways that encourage support for moderate parties and reduce conflict. This study examines patterns of vote transfers in Northern Ireland in the thirteen local elections since 1973, to determine whether voters are transferring support across the ethno-national divide, and whether such transferring has increased over time. This analysis will provide evidence regarding the effectiveness of STV in encouraging support for moderate parties and cross-community transfers in deeply divided societies. It concludes that there has been a modest but significant increase in transfers from moderate parties in one community to the other, and from moderates in both communities to non-aligned parties. This has played an important role in facilitating moderation in Northern Ireland politics.<br/><br/>