Why Can't Africa's Resource Wealth Secure Water, Energy, and Food? The Critical Role of Inequality in the WEF Nexus

ABSTRACT The water–energy–food (WEF) nexus is central to sustainable development, yet many resource‐rich African countries continue to experience persistent shortfalls in access to these essential services. The challenge lies not in resource scarcity, but in how natural resource wealth is governed and distributed. This study examines how dependence on resource rents and income inequality jointly shape WEF performance in Africa. Using panel data for 30 African countries spanning 1996–2022, this study constructs a composite water–energy–food (WEF) index and implements a distribution‐sensitive econometric framework. Average long‐run effects are estimated using the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) estimator, while heterogeneity across the conditional distribution of WEF performance is examined through Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR). A panel threshold model is further applied to identify the inequality level at which the adverse impact of resource rent dependence intensifies. The results show that resource rents systematically undermine WEF outcomes, particularly energy access, while income inequality significantly amplifies these negative effects. A critical threshold is identified at a Gini coefficient of approximately 45, beyond which WEF performance deteriorates sharply. These findings suggest Africa's “paradox of plenty” reflects a distributional governance failure, underscoring the need for inequality‐sensitive rent management and equitable WEF access.