Editorial: Forest growth in a changing climate: insights from predictive modeling and adaptive strategies

stage: younger stands (<50 years) showed higher growth rates under mild winters and moderate late-winter-to-early-spring precipitation, whereas older stands showed weaker responsiveness to these climatic conditions. This contrast indicates that climatic sensitivity is age-dependent, with early developmental stages benefiting more from favorable temperature and moisture regimes. Scenario projections further revealed regionally variable outcomes under future climate pathways, highlighting the importance of limiting extrapolation to conditions represented in the model training data.Similarly, projections for sessile oak (Quercus petraea) and Turkey oak (Q. cerris) in southwestern Hungary showed that the statistical effect of winter water balance on basal area increment was stronger at drier than wetter sites (Móricz et al., 2025). In addition, Q. cerris was more sensitive to summer water balance than Q. petraea, underscoring the importance of incorporating site-specific hydrological controls and species-level differences into predictive growth models.Evidence from water-limited regions indicates that climate warming can alter the primary factors controlling tree growth. Analyzing 53 tree-ring records from China's Loess Plateau revealed a shift in growth sensitivity from temperature to rainfall and drought indicators during the late 20th century (Zhang et al., 2023). While early warming periods were associated with increased growth, more intense drought stress in later decades reduced growth, particularly during the early and late growing seasons. This shift demonstrates how warming can intensify water stress and fundamentally alter growth-climate relationships, with significant implications for dryland and semi-arid forests.Advances in forest growth research increasingly rely on integrating multiple data streams to capture dynamics across different spatial and temporal scales. A study on Larix sibirica in the Altai Mountains combined tree-ring width indices, MODIS NDVI, and extreme climate indices to reconstruct long-term vegetation dynamics and project future growth trends (Che et al., 2026). Significant correlations between radial growth and growing-season NDVI indicated a link between stem-level growth and canopy-scale productivity, while site-specific responses to extreme temperature and precipitation events highlighted the impact of climatic extremes on future trajectories. This multi-proxy approach demonstrates the importance of connecting dendrochronological records with remote sensing data to improve the detection of growth decline and enhance projections under increasingly variable climate conditions.Beyond gradual trends, extreme climatic events significantly influence forest vulnerability and resilience. A large-scale synthesis of tree-ring data from northern high-latitude regions measured historical extreme reductions in growth and separated resilience into resistance and recovery components (Tei, 2025). While the frequency of extreme growth-reduction events remained relatively consistent across regions, recovery capacity varied substantially. Lower resilience in some areas was primarily attributable to limited post-event recovery rather than to stronger initial growth suppression. These findings emphasize that recovery processes are a key determinant of long-term forest stability and suggest that management strategies aimed at enhancing post-disturbance recovery may substantially improve resilience under increasing climate extremes.Several studies offer mechanistic insights into how climate stressors affect tree physiology and growth. An experimental study on Schima superba and Phoebe bournei seedlings revealed species-specific responses to increased UV-B radiation, with measurable impacts on photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, transpiration, and secondary metabolite production. Differences in tolerance between the species suggest that changes in radiation regimes can influence vulnerability through physiological pathways, potentially altering future species performance. In temperate hardwood forests, a rainfall exclusion experiment showed that slight soil moisture reductions decreased sugar maple (Acer saccharum) growth and changed nutrient dynamics, especially in stands with growing understory beech (Parsons et al., 2025). Interactions between drought stress and biotic competition intensified growth declines and disrupted nutrient cycles, underscoring the need to consider both abiotic and biotic factors in predictive models.Several studies provide mechanistic insights into how climate stressors influence tree physiology and growth. An experimental study on Schima superba and Phoebe bournei seedlings demonstrated species-specific responses to intensified UV-B radiation, affecting photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, transpiration, and secondary metabolite production, suggesting differential vulnerability under altered radiation regimes (Parsons et al., 2025). At the northern limit of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) in Québec, a rainfall exclusion experiment showed that soil moisture under excluders declined to 56% of control plots, reducing basal area increment, particularly where understory beech (Fagus grandifolia) saplings proliferated (Parsons et al., 2025). Rainfall exclusion increased foliar Mg insufficiency and altered soil nutrient supply patterns, including shifts in inorganic nitrogen, base cations, and acidity (Parsons et al., 2025). These findings demonstrate that even modest drought can disrupt growth and nutrient dynamics through interacting abiotic and biotic mechanisms.Forest growth responses correlate with ecosystem-level carbon dynamics. Using an optimized InTEC model, a study of subtropical forests in Zhejiang Province showed that the climate sensitivity of net ecosystem productivity varies with forest age (Zhang et al., 2025). During early developmental stages, productivity is most strongly affected by precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation, while mature forests show a stronger negative response to temperature. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating age-dependent processes into ecosystem models when assessing future carbon-sink potential.Long-term forest sustainability depends on successful regeneration and population structure. A synthesis of research on environmental controls of natural forest regeneration highlighted the roles of light availability, water resources, wind, soil properties, topography, and groundcover, while identifying key knowledge gaps in wind effects, coppicing regeneration, and predictive modeling (Liu, 2025). Complementing this review, an analysis of Abies forests in southeastern Tibet revealed clustered distributions of small trees, scarcity of medium-and large-diameter individuals, and variable spatial associations among species and developmental stages (Huang et al., 2024). These structural patterns provide insights into regeneration bottlenecks and coexistence mechanisms in climatically sensitive alpine forests.Tropical dry forests are increasingly threatened by climate change and anthropogenic pressures. Principal coordinate analysis indicates that temperature, precipitation, soil pH, organic matter, and elements strongly influence vegetation patterns. Long-term climatic trends indicate rising temperatures and declining rainfall, which exacerbate biodiversity loss. Urbanization, agriculture, grazing, and infrastructure development are major threats. Urgent conservation priorities are emphasizing habitat protection, sustainable resource use, restoration efforts, and community-based management of biodiversity under changing climatic conditions (Shahzad et al., 2024). Tropical dry forests (TDF) harbor rich flora and fauna that provide essential ecological services to surrounding human communities. Biodiversity assessment is critical for sustainable forest management, particularly in regions facing increasing environmental pressures (Shahzad et al., 2024). Vegetation analyses across threatened forest sites in District Sialkot, Pakistan, documented 170 plant species distributed among herbs, trees, and shrubs, with herbs dominating. Principal coordinate analysis identified temperature, precipitation, soil pH, organic matter, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺, Cl⁻, and electrical conductivity as key environmental drivers shaping vegetation patterns (Shahzad et al., 2024). Increasing temperature trends and declining rainfall indicate significant climatic influences on plant biodiversity. SWOT analysis further showed that population growth, housing development, road construction, farming practices, and excessive grazing are major anthropogenic pressures altering ecosystem structure and functioning. Future conservation strategies emphasize reducing unlawful resource consumption, restoring biodiversity within protected areas, and conserving rare species locally (Shahzad et al., 2024).Understanding how coastal forests respond to climate change and sea level rise is crucial for predicting ecosystem changes in low-lying areas. A study examining coastal forests along the Delaware and Barnegat Bays used dendrochronology to evaluate how tree growth reacts to climatic variability and rising tidal flooding (Haaf et al., 2024). By analyzing tree-ring widths of Pinus taeda, Pinus rigida, and Ilex opaca across environmental gradients, the authors employed gradient-boosted linear regression to assess the relationships between radial growth and factors like temperature, precipitation, and tidal water levels. Results showed that climate change and increased flood frequency can produce complex, non-linear effects on tree growth, with responses varying among species and locations. These findings highlight that local environmental conditions and species-specific tolerances strongly influence coastal forest resilience, emphasizing the importance of site-specific management strategies as sea levels rise and flooding becomes more frequent. 2024) applied an optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to forecast the potential distribution of Cytospora chrysosperma, the cause of cytospora canker, across Xinjiang, China. Based on occurrence records and various environmental factors, the study identified key climatic drivers influencing pathogen spread, including precipitation seasonality and potential evapotranspiration patterns. Model projections showed that large areas of Xinjiang currently offer suitable habitat for the pathogen and that its distribution center could shift under future climate conditions. These results underscore the growing importance of climate-aware disease risk assessments and provide a scientific foundation for monitoring, prevention, and management efforts to reduce the impacts of cytospora canker on regional forest and fruit industries.Together, the studies in this Research Topic enhance understanding of forest growth in a changing climate by combining empirical observations with predictive and mechanistic modeling across various forest systems. A consistent message is that growth responses are highly contextdependent and increasingly influenced by water balance, climatic extremes, and recovery processes. Future research will benefit from deeper integration of physiological mechanisms, multi-proxy datasets, and demographic processes into growth models. Such comprehensive approaches are vital for improving forecasts of forest dynamics and guiding adaptive management strategies amid ongoing environmental change. Acknowledgement