Winds of change – modelling the onshore wind energy landscape of Great Britain for Net Zero targets

• Windfarm GHGs vary with wind, soil carbon, substitution credits, and grid mix. • WindFor maps SOC change, CO 2 , energy output, and avoided emissions. • Net emissions vary spatially with site conditions and shifting grid carbon. • Ability for national wind to avoid major emissions depends strongly on siting. • Optimised siting cuts life-cycle emissions and supports UK 2050 Net Zero. Society needs to reduce its consumption of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-heavy resources to reduce its impact on the planet and climate. Thus, the United Kingdom Net Zero targets aim to reduce net GHG emissions by at least 100% by 2050, compared to 1990. Net Zero strategies aim to reduce emissions from all sectors of the economy and to actively contribute towards GHG removal. Major technological advancements have made wind energy the second largest contributor of renewable energy to the market. However, current research on the GHG emissions associated with wind turbines provides highly variable results linked to differences in the boundaries of the life cycle assessment (LCA), for example. Here, we demonstrate the sensitivity of wind turbine GHG-LCAs not only to wind speed but also to site initial soil organic carbon (SOC) and substitution credits (or grid decarbonisation). Moreover, our novel spatial model for onshore wind energy in Great Britain (WindFor) highlights nation-wide spatiotemporal trends in SOC change, GHG emissions, energy produced, and the emissions avoided when compared to the rest of the national grid. While the roll-out of UK wind energy has shown promise, significant challenges must be addressed to site turbines in locations that minimise emissions.