Personalized Blood Glucose Prediction Using Physiology- Informed Machine Learning

Data-driven approaches to blood glucose predictive modeling face significant challenges due to the inherent variability in biological systems. While these methods efficiently capture statistical patterns through automated processes, they often lack the biological interpretability necessary to link model behavior with underlying physiological mechanisms. In contrast, physiological models offer accurate mechanistic representations but require complex parameterization and specialized domain expertise. In this work, we present an approach for predicting blood glucose levels (BGLs) leveraging the concept of physiology-informed neural networks (PINNs). This approach addresses the challenge of BGL prediction by incorporating the parameters of insulin and meal dynamics within the architecture of a predictive network. It employs a two-stage learning approach for modeling physiology and predicting BGLs. The neural network is pretrained to approximate the solutions of the physiological dynamics, and the output of this pretrained model, representing the insulin and glucose concentration states, is then fed as input into a predictive model, enabling simultaneous optimization of predictive accuracy and physiological parameter estimation, offering advantages over traditional modeling approaches in terms of personalized prediction and interpretability. The results highlight the model’s ability to estimate physiological parameters while maintaining strong predictive performance that aligns with the underlying physiological principles. This framework offers significant potential for personalized predictive modeling where precise and efficient understanding of individual metabolism is essential.