A Spatiotemporal Cluster Analysis and Dynamic Evaluation Model for the Rock Mass Instability Risk During Deep Mining of Metal Mine

With the increasing depth of mining operations, accurate identification and assessment of rock mass instability risks are crucial for ensuring mine safety. This study proposes an integrated framework combining the Hierarchical Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (HDBSCAN), fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) and kernel density estimation (KDE) for the identification and dynamic assessment of high-risk zones in deep mining. Using microseismic monitoring data from a lead–zinc mine in Northwest China (January–June 2023), the HDBSCAN algorithm adaptively identified 86 high-density clusters from 11,638 events. The weights of five evaluation indicators (moment magnitude, apparent stress, stress drop, peak ground acceleration, and ringing count) were determined objectively using the Euclidean distance method. FCE was then applied to classify cluster risk levels, revealing that 70.9% of the clusters were rated as high-risk (Level IV). KDE further illustrated the spatiotemporal migration of high-risk zones, showing a systematic shift from northeast to southwest along stopes and roadways, driven by mining unloading and geological structures. The integrated HDBSCAN-FCE-KDE framework demonstrates strong applicability and reliability in identifying and predicting rock mass instability risks, providing a scientific basis for proactive risk management in deep mining environments.