Strategic analysis of tourism development in Afar Region, Ethiopia: a SWOT–QSPM approach

Introduction Tourism development in emerging destinations rich in geoheritage resources often faces structural and institutional constraints that limit competitiveness and sustainability. The Afar Region of Ethiopia hosts globally significant geoheritage assets, including the Erta Ale volcano and the Danakil Depression, yet its tourism potential remains underutilized due to infrastructure deficits, weak governance coordination, and limited stakeholder integration. This study aims to systematically assess the region's tourism competitiveness and to prioritize sustainable development strategies using an integrated strategic framework. Methods A quantitative research design was employed using a structured survey administered to 210 respondents representing six key stakeholder groups. The study integrates SWOT analysis with the Internal Factor Evaluation (IFE) and External Factor Evaluation (EFE) matrices, followed by the Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) to rank and prioritize strategic alternatives. This hybrid methodological framework enables systematic factor weighting and objective strategic prioritization. Results The findings indicate a moderate level of tourism competitiveness, with strengths and opportunities slightly outweighing weaknesses and threats. The IFE and EFE scores suggest that while Afar possesses strong geoheritage appeal and growing market opportunities, infrastructural gaps and institutional fragmentation hinder performance. QSPM prioritization identified capacity building, infrastructure development, enhanced stakeholder collaboration, and targeted digital marketing strategies as the most viable and high-impact interventions. Discussion The study extends the application of QSPM within destination competitiveness research by integrating sustainability principles into strategic evaluation. It proposes a replicable hybrid model suitable for emerging and resource-constrained destinations. Practically, the findings provide policymakers and tourism stakeholders with evidence-based strategic guidance to enhance infrastructure, strengthen inclusive governance, and position Afar more competitively within Ethiopia's national tourism portfolio.