Eco-epidemiological and economic evaluation of climate-responsive Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) (noctuidae: lepidoptera) management in Rabi maize: a comparative study of IPM and conventional systems

Fall Armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda, (J. E. Smith, 1797) (Noctuidae: Lepidoptera) poses a significant threat to maize cultivation, particularly during the Rabi season in tropical agro-ecosystems. Conventional Farmer Practices (FP) often fails to provide consistent control, requiring ecologically sound and economically feasible alternatives such as Integrated Pest Management (IPM). This study evaluated the long-term impact of IPM on FAW dynamics under varying climatic conditions in Warangal, Telangana, India. A three-year multi-location, on-farm comparative evaluation (Rabi 2022–2024) was conducted across 20 locations in the erstwhile Warangal district. Treatments compared IPM and FP under real-world conditions. Data on pest incidence, larval population, maize yield, economic returns, and weather parameters were collected and analyzed using two-way ANOVA, paired t-tests, effect size estimation (Cohen’s d), mixed-effects modeling, MANOVA (Wilks’ Lambda), regression analyses, CART, centroid, and bi-plot analysis. Technology adoption was assessed through spider plots, the technology gap and the technology index. IPM significantly reduced FAW incidence (6.8%) and larval numbers (0.7 larvae/plant) compared to FP (30.8%, 2.5 larvae/plant), with large effect sizes (Cohen’s d > 11) and strong significance (p < 0.001). Mixed-effects and MANOVA confirmed consistency across seasons and locations (Wilks’ Lambda = 0.10). Multivariate analyses explained > 72% variance, with IPM associated with low pest pressure and high yields. Weather-based regression models (R² = 0.93–1.00) indicated that a 1 °C temperature rise reduced larval numbers by 0.25–0.536, while a 1% humidity increase raised them by 0.075–0.150 individuals. CART identified outbreak thresholds (humidity > 97.5%). IPM plots yielded 28.77 q/acre-8.77 q/acre more than FP-resulting in higher net returns (₹22,860 vs. ₹11,500/acre) and a superior B: C ratio (2.0 vs. 1.5). Adoption gaps were the largest for pheromone traps and bio-pesticides, but technology gap and index declined over time. IPM clearly outperforms FP in managing FAW in Rabi maize, providing statistically robust, climate-resilient, and economically sustainable benefits. It’s ecological and yield advantages, supported by rigorous multivariate and weather-based analyses, highlighted its suitability for large-scale adoption in semi-arid tropics.