Projecting precipitation extremes over Cyprus using CMIP6 climate scenarios

Changing climatic conditions have significant consequences for precipitation extremes, especially in water-limited regions, such as Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean. This study evaluates historical and future extreme precipitation using twenty-three models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The simulations are validated against the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations dataset (CHIRPS) and combined with bias-corrected projections produced through Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. According to performance evaluations of models, MRI-ESM2-0 and EC-Earth3-Veg-LR stand out as the top-performing models for capturing extreme precipitation behavior over the island. Furthermore, the results suggest a long-term decrease in total precipitation and in the number of moderate and heavy precipitation days toward the end of the century under both scenarios. At the same time, 1-day precipitation maximum generally intensify over most of the island under both scenarios, whereas 5-day precipitation maximum increase under SSP2-4.5 but decline under SSP5-8.5 toward the end of the century. High-percentile indices also strengthen, which indicates a future climate where fewer but more powerful events make up a larger share of annual precipitation. The duration-based indices also lead to an increase in consecutive dry days and shorter wet periods toward the end of the century under high emission scenario, which together signal a shift toward more prolonged dryness and more severe drought events. These combined changes imply that Cyprus will face greater stress on its water resources and experience greater flood risks associated with more intense events. The results also highlight the importance of region-specific strategies that can improve the resilience of water resources under changing climatic conditions.