Land Tenure Security and Smallholder Investment Decisions in Mozambique: An Analysis of the 2021–2026 Policy Framework

{ "background": "Land tenure security is a critical determinant of agricultural investment, particularly for smallholders in sub-Saharan Africa. In Mozambique, a complex dual system of statutory and customary rights creates uncertainty, potentially inhibiting productivity-enhancing investments. Recent policy reforms aim to formalise and secure these rights, yet their on-the-ground impact remains inadequately assessed.", "purpose and objectives": "This study analyses the relationship between perceived land tenure security and smallholder investment decisions within the context of the current national policy framework. It specifically examines the propensity to invest in perennial crops and soil conservation structures.", "methodology": "We employ a mixed-methods approach, combining a structured survey of smallholder households with key informant interviews. Quantitative analysis uses a probit model: $Pr(Investmenti = 1) = \\Phi(\\beta0 + \\beta1Securityi + \\mathbf{X}i'\\boldsymbol{\\beta} + \\epsiloni)$, where $Securityi$ is a composite index of perceived security, and $\\mathbf{X}i$ is a vector of household and plot controls. Robust standard errors are clustered at the community level.", "findings": "A one-standard-deviation increase in the tenure security index is associated with a 15 percentage point higher probability of investing in perennial crops (95% CI: 0.08 to 0.22). Qualitative data reveal that perceived security, more than formal documentation, drives investment, with communal validation remaining paramount. No significant effect was found for short-term inputs.", "conclusion": "Perceived tenure security significantly influences long-term, immovable agricultural investments among Mozambican smallholders. The policy framework's effectiveness hinges on enhancing locally-legitimate security, not merely issuing formal titles.", "recommendations": "Policy implementation should prioritise community-level dispute resolution mechanisms and accessible registration to bolster perceived security. Support programmes for perennial crops should be integrated with tenure clarification initiatives.", "key words": "Land tenure, agricultural investment, smallholder farmers, policy analysis, Mozambique