The Impact of US Tariff Policies Based on Multi-objective Decision-making Model

The Trump administration introduced the “reciprocal tariff” policy, which has exerted tangible impacts on the U.S. fiscal sector and manufacturing industry, necessitating scientific modeling for quantitative analysis. Focusing on two core industries—automotive and semiconductors—this study develops targeted models to assess the policy’s effects. Specifically, it constructs a behavioral response model embedded with Japanese automakers, adopts the CES demand function to establish a multi-objective decision-making model (MODM) with the dual goals of “maximizing economic benefits + minimizing national security risks,” and builds a multi-index comprehensive evaluation model (MICE) to measure the policy’s economic impacts. The findings reveal that under the high-tariff regime, Japanese automakers have shifted their production focus to Mexico. For the U.S. semiconductor industry, tariffs present a contradictory structure: 70.5% of products are subject to zero tariffs to safeguard downstream costs, while 29.5% of strategic products face tariff hikes. In the long run, the tariff policy will lead to a sustained decline in technological competitiveness. This model not only provides a basis for the U.S. to evaluate the benefits and risks of tariff policies but also offers a reference for countries worldwide to mitigate the risks of trade fragmentation.