Estimating the preventable burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to ultra-processed dietary patterns in Canada: A modeling study

INTRODUCTION: The consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPF) has been associated with increased risks of chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, specific data on the CVD burden attributable to UPF intake remains limited. This study aimed to estimate the burden of CVD attributable to ultra-processed dietary patterns among adults in Canada. METHODS: This study applied a comparative risk assessment model to estimate the burden of CVD, specifically, incident cases of heart disease and stroke, CVD-related deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) related to CVD, attributable to ultra-processed dietary patterns in adults aged 20 and older. Model inputs included nationally representative dietary intake data from 2015, national health statistics on CVD, and Canadian data on CVD outcomes sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2019. RESULTS: In 2015, UPF constituted 43.4% of Canadian adults' total daily energy intake. Between 23% and 38% of all CVD events in 2019 were attributable to UPF intake, corresponding to 58,200 to 96,000 new cases of CVD, 10,600 to 17,400 CVD-related deaths, and 235,800 to 388,700 DALYs. Modeling counterfactual scenarios suggests that reducing UPF consumption by 20% to 50% may have prevented 16,800 to 45,900 new CVD cases, 3,100 to 8,300 CVD-related deaths, and 67,800 to 185,200 DALYs in 2019 in Canada. CONCLUSIONS: UPF consumption may account for a substantial and potentially preventable burden of CVD in Canada. These findings reinforce the need for clinical and public health interventions aimed at reducing UPF intake as a key component of CVD prevention.