The role of the conspiracy narrative triad in operationalizing conspiracy beliefs

The current study investigates the manner in which different operationalizations of conspiracy theories – encompassing or eschewing the fundamental elements of the conspiracy narrative triad (group, goal-directed malevolent intent, secrecy) – configure empirical findings. In addition, it is posited that the exclusion of the triad from measurement may not only result in inaccurate or incomplete measurements, but also in the measurement of non-conspiratorial misinformation. In the context of climate change conspiracy beliefs, three studies with Greek and U.S. samples (nTotal = 1383) were conducted to examine the effect of different operationalizations, using SEM techniques and network analysis. A two-factor model with correlated factors was postulated and supported (0.72 ≤ rs ≤ 0.90). Network analysis further revealed the presence of two distinct communities. The first community comprised items that did not directly present the elements of the conspiracy triad (Climate Change Misinformation – CCM), while the second community consisted of items containing these elements (Climate Change Conspiracy Beliefs – CCCB). Further analyses indicated that CCCB were predicted by all variables expected to predict them such as powerlessness, anthropomorphism, attitude importance, anomie, political ideology and various generic conspiracy variables. In contrast, CCM was only consistently predicted by political ideology. The findings highlight the importance of incorporating the fundamental narrative elements when operationalizing the concept.