A Study on Determining the Optimal Supply Level in the Early Stage of War Using Rolling- Horizon Optimization in System Dynamics

The supply level is a stock management policy in the Republic of Korea Army that expresses inventory levels in terms of days. The purpose of operating the supply level system is to ensure continuous, cost-effective, and efficient supply operations. However, the current supply level determination lacks a clear basis for calculation. To address this issue, previous studies have proposed various methods for determining supply levels, such as simulations and meta- modeling. However, these studies fail to account for the dynamics of demand and lead time, which can fluctuate over time during wartime. This study aims to overcome these limitations by applying Rolling-Horizon optimization in sys- tem dynamics. To achieve this, we construct a supply chain model for the Army and incorporate real-world supply operation data from the Republic of Korea Army into the model. Through the application of system dynamics-based Rolling-Horizon optimization, we determine the optimal supply level while considering time-varying demand and lead time. Furthermore, this research not only establishes a theoretical framework for supply level determination but also provides practical insights for military logistics, enabling supply officers to adapt inventory management strategies in response to uncertain and evolving wartime conditions.