A geospatial approach to neighbourhood prioritisation for urban greening under climate–health risk

Abstract Urban vulnerability arises from the interaction of environmental exposures, socio-demographic inequalities, and public-health stressors. Urban green space is part of the solution, but its adaptive value depends on vegetation type and spatial distribution. We developed a spatial, indicator-based framework for Enschede, the Netherlands, to support neighbourhood prioritisation for urban greening under climate-health risk. We integrated indicators of heat exposure, flood exposure, mental health, physical health, and socio-demographic status into a composite score to rank neighbourhoods by relative need, and modelled associations between tree canopy and grass cover and each indicator while accounting for socio-demographic status. Tree cover showed the strongest and most consistent associations with lower climate exposure and better mental health. Grass cover was also associated with enhancing heat and reducing flood exposure, but associations were smaller and less consistent. Physical health was primarily associated with socio-demographic status. A key spatial finding is that climate exposures follow an inverse distribution: flood risk concentrates in the dense urban core while heat stress is more pronounced in peri-urban neighbourhoods with lower canopy density when using the 41 °C threshold. Spatial analysis further confirmed that areas with Physical Equivalent Temperature below 41 °C correspond almost exclusively to locations with tree canopy or forest cover, underscoring the specific cooling function of trees relative to other vegetation types. These results support spatially differentiated, municipality-level prioritisation of greening, with emphasis on protecting and expanding tree canopy in high-need areas and complementing canopy interventions with permeable surfaces where flood risk dominates. Although cross-sectional and not causal, the framework is transparent, reproducible, and suitable for participatory use, providing a practical starting point for locally responsive and evidence-informed urban resilience planning.