Identifying Risk Factors and Creating a Point-Based Risk Calculator for Postoperative Pneumonia in Thoracic Surgery Patients

< .05) with a 10-fold cross-validated AUC ROC = .72 (fair classifier). The significant preoperative predictors and their effect size were, sepsis (1.43), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (1.04), male gender (.77), bleeding disorder (.57), current smoker within 1 year (0.39), disseminated cancer (.39), hypoalbuminemia (.33), history of severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (.31), and anemia (.05). Method 2 achieved a 10-fold cross-validation AUC ROC = .75 (fair classifier). Method 3 had an AUC ROC = .6 (poor classifier). The nine significant predictors from Method 1 were used to develop a risk-based calculator.