Climate Change Vulnerability and Conservation Priorities for Atlantic Forest Palms

Climate change is expected to significantly impact biodiversity, causing shifts in palm species distribution. Understanding how climate change affects distribution patterns and identifying traits that influence species' responses may contribute to species conservation. Using ecological niche models and life-history trait data for 59 palm species of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, we investigated: (i) how future climate scenarios may affect species richness and climatically suitable areas for Atlantic Forest palms, identifying the most threatened species, and (ii) which traits are associated with gains or losses in the suitable area under climate change. In general, the Atlantic Forest is projected to maintain high levels of palm species richness, although substantial regional losses are expected, particularly along the northern coast and in central areas of the biome, which currently harbor areas of high species richness. Our projections indicate that over 64.4% of palm species will experience contractions in their climatically suitable areas across all future scenarios. Species with restricted distributions are particularly vulnerable, reinforcing the importance of baseline range size as a key determinant of climate change sensitivity. In contrast, life-history traits were not significant predictors of changes in the area ratio across future scenarios. These findings identify priority regions and species for conservation planning and emphasize the need to protect climatically stable areas, enhance habitat connectivity, and implement restoration strategies to mitigate biodiversity loss in the Atlantic Forest.