出生率低下の中で都市と農村の教育資源配分が農民工の都市定住意向に与える影響

The urbanization of rural migrants serves as a crucial driver for integrated urbanrural development, yet this process is often constrained by factors such as employment opportunities, social security systems, and land policies. This study examines dynamic changes in educational resource allocation under rural population aging, employing an ordered Probit model to empirically analyze how compulsory education accessibility in destination cities and urban-rural educational resource disparities influence migrants’ settlement intentions. Key findings reveal: (1) Destination cities’ compulsory education resources significantly enhance settlement willingness, with this effect becoming markedly pronounced when the urban-rural education gap surpasses a critical threshold; (2) Premium urban educational resources primarily strengthen settlement intention by increasing the likelihood of children accompanying migrants, though the hukou system substantially weakens this mechanism. This research contributes fresh insights into permanent rural labor relocation through the lens of educational resource dynamics.