Mild cognitive impairment‐to‐Alzheimer's dementia progression risk: the contribution of the <i>Interceptor</i> project
BACKGROUND: Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is an intermediate stage between normal and pathological brain aging, with 30% to 50% progressing to dementia within 3 to 5 years. Early identification of individuals at high risk of progression is crucial for public health strategies. METHODS: The INTERCEPTOR project included 398 MCI individuals. Baseline assessment included harmonized procedures for sociodemographic, clinical, neuropsychological, genetic (apolipoprotein E), cerebrospinal fluid (amyloid beta tau), electroencephalogram (brain connectivity), magnetic resonance imaging (hippocampal volumetry), and fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography. The baseline and follow-up were completed by 351 individuals with MCI with neuropsychological tests every 6 months for 3 years. RESULTS: Dementia developed in 104 individuals (29.6%), including 85 (22.4%) who met core clinical criteria for probable and possible Alzheimer's disease dementia. A Cox model combining clinical and sociodemographic data achieved a concordance index of 72%, which increased to 82% when neuropsychology and biomarkers were added. DISCUSSION: The INTERCEPTOR nomogram represents a tool for predicting dementia progression risk, supporting public health strategies, including screening for risk assessment and risk/benefit ratio in innovative treatments.
Authors
- Stefano Francesco Cappa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1003-3925)
- Flavia Lombardo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6183-0735)
- Patrizia Spadin
- Chiara Pappalettera (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0020-6274)
- Patrizia Lorenzini (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4629-2067)
- DAVIDE QUARANTA
- Alberto Redolfi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4145-9059)
- Francesco Iodice (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4817-8089)
- Maria Cotelli (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3208-3798)
- Paolo Maria Rossini
- Daniela Perani
- Fabrizio Vecchio
- Naike Caraglia
- the INTERCEPTOR Network
- Camillo Marra
- Fabrizio Tagliavini
- Francesca Miraglia
- Nicola Vanacore
Institutions
- Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore (IT)
- Vita-Salute San Raffaele University (IT)
- Università degli Studi eCampus (IT)
- Istituto Superiore di Sanità (IT)
- Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori di Pavia (IT)
- Agostino Gemelli University Polyclinic (IT)
- National Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (IT)
- Centro San Giovanni di Dio Fatebenefratelli (IT)
- Associazione Italiana per l'Agricoltura Biologica (IT)
- IRCCS Ospedale San Raffaele (IT)
- IRCCS Istituto Auxologico Italiano (IT)
- Istituti di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico (IT)
- Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Neurologico Carlo Besta (IT)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Alzheimer s & Dementia
- Published
- 2026-04-01
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1002/alz.71204
- Citations
- 1
- Primary Topic
- Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 21.11
Funders
- Ministero della Salute
- Agenzia Italiana del Farmaco, Ministero della Salute