Assessing the impact of COVID-19 and policy reforms on early childhood education in Victoria, Australia: a time series and spatial analysis

Abstract World-wide, COVID-19 significantly impacted the education sector, and specifically the Early Childhood Education and Care (ECEC) sector in Victoria, Australia. This caused declines in children’s enrolment due to restrictions that limited centre operations. After the COVID-19 pandemic, the Victorian government introduced the Best Start, Best Life reform (2024) to improve accessibility and equity in ECEC. The impact of the reform over three key periods is analysed: pre-COVID-19, COVID-19 and post-COVID-19, focusing on enrolment trends and affordability, through time series and regional spatial analysis. Findings indicate enrolments fell sharply during the COVID-19 closures, raising concerns about children’s developmental trajectories. The expected equitable distribution of enrolment benefits of the reform has not been uniformly achieved. Enrolment of children in rural areas has declined, while enrolment of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children has increased. Fee increases in areas close to metropolitan Melbourne have outpaced those in rural areas, where increases have been more gradual. Throughout the pandemic, centre-based ECEC settings remained the main stable provider. In contrast, family-based settings struggled, highlighting the need for increased support to sustain their operations during these challenging times. Future research can illuminate policy impacts across communities, but reducing socio-economic and geographic inequalities remains essential to equitable early learning in Victoria.