Farmland Transfer, Land Use Transition, and Grain Production Capacity: Spatial Evidence from China

As a crucial pathway for optimizing land factor allocation, farmland transfer plays a pivotal role in implementing the “storing grain in land and technology” strategy and safeguarding national grain security. Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China spanning 2009 to 2023, this study employs a two-way fixed effects model and a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to systematically examine the mechanisms, heterogeneity, and spatial spillover effects of farmland transfer on grain production capacity. The results indicate that: (1) Farmland transfer significantly enhances grain production capacity, and this conclusion remains robust after multiple robustness and endogeneity tests. (2) Farmland transfer boosts grain production capacity by promoting cultivated land connectivity and facilitating the substitution of machinery for labor; however, the accompanying non-grain tendency and land governance disputes exert inhibitory effects on capacity release. (3) Transfers to farming households and professional cooperatives, as well as the adoption of leasing and informal exchange arrangements, exhibit the strongest positive effects on production capacity, and the scale-efficiency gains of farmland transfer are particularly pronounced in major grain-consuming areas. (4) Improvements in a region’s farmland transfer level drive the enhancement of grain production capacity in neighboring regions through the diffusion of management experience and the sharing of social services. This study provides empirical evidence and policy insights to optimize farmland transfer mechanisms and safeguard food security.