A serial mediation model of confirmation bias: the influence of intolerance of uncertainty, perceived stress and career decision-making difficulties

Purpose The purpose of this study is to find the susceptibility of confirmation bias and its relationships among intolerance of uncertainty (IU), perceived stress, and emotional-personality-related career decision-making difficulties (EPCD), through a serial mediation analysis. Design/methodology/approach The study employed a structural equation modelling (SEM) approach using R Studio (version 4.4.3). The study employed a cross-sectional design, involving 378 final-year undergraduate students from rural regions of three southern Indian states, who were selected through purposive sampling. Findings The findings revealed that students exhibit a tendency towards confirmation bias, and intolerance of uncertainty (IU) positively influences emotional and personality-related career decision-making difficulties (EPCD), as well as confirmation bias through perceived stress. Additionally, the results support the proposed serial mediation model, indicating that IU increases susceptibility to confirmation bias via its impact on perceived stress and, subsequently, EPCD. Research limitations/implications This study makes theoretical contributions to the fields of career decision-making and cognitive psychology, aligning with key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 4 (quality education) and SDG 8 (decent work and economic growth). The findings offer actionable insights for researchers, career counsellors, and policymakers to design targeted interventions that reduce career decision-making difficulties and mitigate the tendency toward confirmation bias, thereby promoting more informed and quality decision-making. Originality/value This study extends existing models by introducing perceived stress and EPCD as serial mediators between intolerance of uncertainty and confirmation bias. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to explore this specific mediation pathway in the context of career decision-making among students from rural communities, providing valuable insights to the fields of cognitive psychology and career development.