Non-Trade in the MENA Revisited: A Gravity Model Analysis

This paper provides a historical perspective on comparatively low levels of trade in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, focusing on studies addressing the impact of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. Our literature review identifies best practices and reviews trade potential estimates and finds that the last year for which a relevant trade potential estimate for the region accounting for the influence of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict is available is 1999. First, we replicate the seminal study that provided the earliest estimation of trade potential. Next, we extend and update this study, using a best practice panel PPML gravity model with ex(/im)porter-year fixed effects for 76 countries (1991–2019 inclusive). Finally, we use two alternative approaches to estimate the intra-MENA trade potential that could have been reaped as a consequence of a geopolitically more stable and open Middle East (ME). In the year 2019, this ‘pot of gold’ (POG) in per cent of intra-MENA trade amounted to 10% to 54% (import-based) and 21% to 48% (export-based), substantially lower than earlier literature reports.