Geopolitical conflict and risk and the EU energy trading: A dynamic evolutionary networks analysis

The European Union's (EU) energy imports have continued to faced challenges while heightening since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and therefore energy security has come to the fore. In this study, we adopt a social network approach (SNA) and an exponential random graph model (ERGM) to analyze the impact of the conflict on the energy trade focusing on the EU and its relations with major energy trading countries. We use data from a sample of 47 countries from 2014 to 2023 to explore the characteristics of the structural evolution of the EU's conventional and renewable trade networks and the influencing mechanisms behind them. The EU's conventional network is undergoing a contraction as the conflicts are driving a significant global trend towards decoupling. Meanwhile, its renewable trade network is thriving, indicating a shift in energy structures and the restructuring of the core trade periphery. Russia is fading out of the core circle of trade, and the US is becoming a key hub connecting all parties. Germany, France, and the Netherlands play the role of essential importers as core nodes of the network. Mechanistic analysis shows that mutualism plays a vital role in multilateral trade. Rising geopolitical risks, while posing a barrier to energy imports, have facilitated a boom in renewable trade. Economic size and trade openness have positively driven energy trade. Foreign investment, intellectual property rights, and population and urbanization levels have differentiated the two types of energy trade. Geographic proximity, linguistic commonality, and free trade agreements positively contributed to the construction and maintenance of energy trade networks. This study depicts the dynamics of EU energy trade under geopolitical turbulence and informs the transformation of the EU's energy structure.