The impact of prosecutors’ office caseloads on case processing outcomes

Research Summary Contemporary criminal justice discourse frequently highlights rising caseloads as a crisis for prosecutors across the United States. Yet, empirical assessments of how caseloads impact prosecutorial decision making are scarce. This study exploits data on office caseloads and cases disposed between 2021 and 2024 in 19 prosecutors’ offices across Colorado to investigate the impact of office caseload pressure on plea and charge reduction rates. We use a two‐level modeling strategy in which weekly activity is nested within prosecutors’ offices, and caseload pressure is measured using weekly open case counts. While nearly as much variation in outcomes occurs across prosecutors’ offices as across weeks, we find that prosecutors’ offices resolve fewer cases via guilty plea in weeks when caseload pressure is higher. Effects are slightly stronger on dispositions for misdemeanor offenses than felonies. Little relationship between caseload pressure and charge reductions is observed. Policy Implications This study provides useful insight into prosecutorial responses to caseload pressures. Although pleas are traditionally conceptualized as a tool to increase efficiency in case processing, we find little evidence that prosecutors’ offices increase their use of pleas or charge bargaining when caseload pressures are higher. Current rising caseload pressures may incentivize dismissals rather than plea bargains, potentially impacting case outcomes, public safety concerns, and disparities in case processing burdens across sociodemographic groups. The results highlight how staffing in high‐pressure offices, early case reviews, and policies prioritizing cases may ensure caseloads remain manageable or may limit the impact of caseload pressures on case outcomes.