Early Prediction of Well-Being Outcomes in Older Adults Using Explainable AI and Emotional Intelligence Measures

Background: Well-being in the elderly is shaped by complex emotional and social factors. Early identification of individuals at risk for reduced well-being may support timely preventive or supportive interventions. This study examined whether emotional intelligence indicators collected at baseline can predict well-being status 5 months later using explainable machine learning models. Methods: A cohort of elderly participants aged 60 to 89 years completed emotional intelligence measures at baseline, and well-being was assessed 5 months later using the POMS questionnaire. Four machine learning algorithms, Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), were developed using 5-fold stratified cross-validation. Model performance was evaluated through accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, ROC AUC, and normalized confusion matrices. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were applied to interpret the contribution and directionality of each predictor. Results: XGBoost achieved the highest predictive performance (accuracy = 0.789; F1 = 0.778) and demonstrated balanced classification across well-being categories. SVM also performed robustly (accuracy = 0.760), while LR showed reduced sensitivity for detecting those with poorer well-being. SHAP analysis identified self-control, emotionality, sociability, self-motivation, and well-being components as the most influential predictors. Lower emotionality, higher sociability, and higher self-control scores were linked to a greater probability of favorable well-being outcomes. Conclusions: The findings demonstrate the feasibility of using explainable machine learning models to predict 5-month well-being status within this sample of older adults using emotional intelligence indicators. XGBoost provided the strongest and most balanced performance, while SHAP analysis clarified how specific emotional intelligence dimensions influenced predictions. These findings suggest that interpretable machine learning approaches may support future efforts toward early recognition of older adults who may be at risk for reduced well-being and guide personalized intervention strategies.