Discrete Element Modelling of Thermal Evolution of Forsmark Repository for Spent Nuclear Fuel Disposal and Long-Term Response of Discrete Fracture Network

Long-term safety assessment of deep geological repositories for spent nuclear fuel requires explicit evaluation of thermo-mechanical (TM) processes induced by decay heat and their influence on fractured host rock. A safety-relevant, though low-probability, scenario concerns shear reactivation of fractures intersecting deposition holes, which could compromise canister integrity if displacement exceeds design limits. This study presents a three-dimensional discrete element modelling approach to analyze the thermal evolution of the Forsmark repository (Sweden) and the associated long-term response of a discrete fracture network (DFN) during the post-closure phase. The model explicitly represents repository panel, deterministic deformation zones, and a stochastically generated fracture network embedded in a bonded particle assembly representing the rock for Particle Flow Code (PFC) numerical simulations. Time-dependent heat release from spent nuclear fuel canisters is implemented using a physically based decay power function. A deposition panel-scale heat-loading formulation accounts for deposition-hole and tunnel spacing. Two emplacement scenarios are analyzed: (a) a simultaneous all-panel heating scenario, used as a conservative bounding case, and (b) a sequential panel heating scenario representing staged emplacement and closure. The simulations show that temperature and thermally induced stress evolution are sensitive to the emplacement and closure sequence. Sequential heating produces a more gradual thermal build-up and lower peak temperatures than simultaneous heating, indicating that thermal and stress perturbations in the host rock can be influenced not only through repository design, but also by operational strategy. Thermally induced fracture shear displacement displays a systematic temporal response. Fractures located within the deposition panel footprint develop shear displacement rapidly during the early post-closure period, reaching peak values at approximately 200 years, followed by gradual relaxation as temperatures decline. The average peak shear displacement on fractures is on the order of 2–3 mm, while fractures outside the panel footprint show smaller early-time displacements and a more prolonged long-term response. All simulated shear displacements remain more than one order of magnitude below the commonly cited canister damage threshold for Forsmark of approximately 50 mm, even for the conservative simultaneous heating case. These results indicate that thermally induced fracture shear is unlikely to cause direct mechanical damage to canisters. At the same time, the persistence of residual shear displacement after heating implies permanent fracture dilation, which may influence long-term hydraulic properties and indirectly affect processes such as groundwater flow and canister corrosion. The modelling framework and results presented here were conducted for review purposes independently from the Swedish safety case, and provide a mechanistic basis for evaluating thermally induced fracture deformation in crystalline rock repositories and contribute to bounding the role of thermo-mechanical processes in the safety assessment of spent nuclear fuel disposal at Forsmark.