A Theory of Repression and Democratic Transition

ABSTRACT What is the relationship between authoritarian repression and democratization? I reexamine this question by analyzing the problem of an autocrat who intends to install a democracy but faces a highly diverse policy environment. Using a theoretical framework, I show that a strategic use of repression can often contribute to a democratic political transition. In other words, repression and democratization are not always substitutes. A transition to democracy can follow a series of repressions aimed at eliminating ideologically distant opposition. The paper identifies two factors that determine whether this mechanism dominates: the severity and the cost of repression. The model is illustrated by the episodes of democratic transitions in Sub‐Saharan Africa.