Reduced order model for inorganic scaling in pipelines

Inorganic scale deposition in complex production hardware, such as Inflow Control Devices (ICDs), presents a severe flow assurance risk that conventional predictive models often underestimate. While high-fidelity CFD is computationally prohibitive for system-wide analysis, existing reduced-order models (ROMs) typically oversimplify the underlying particle kinetics. In this sense, our work introduces a novel ROM that reformulates a top-down kinetic framework as a two-equation system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), effectively acting as a computationally tractable Population Balance Model. This approach resolves the distinct population dynamics of small, sub-micron precursors and large, depositable aggregates. The model is driven by local wall shear stress obtained from CFD and is validated against both low-shear pipe and high-shear ICD experiments for CaCO 3 and SrSO 4 scaling. The results demonstrate that in complex, high-turbulence environments, the scaling rate is governed by non-equilibrium, shear-induced aggregation. The full two-equation model accurately captures this phenomenon, showing excellent agreement with experimental data where the simpler one-equation variant fails. This physically robust and computationally efficient framework enables the reliable prediction of scaling risk in critical production components, facilitating proactive mitigation and enhancing operational integrity from oil and gas production systems. • Two-equation ROM provides a fast alternative to CFD for scale prediction. • Wall shear stress drives turbophoretic deposition and shear-induced aggregation. • Two-equation ROM predicts scaling in high-shear, complex hardware like ICDs. • One-equation equilibrium models fail where nonequilibrium shear aggregation prevails. • Framework enables efficient, proactive scale management in petroleum systems.