WEO Methodology Manual: Systematic Tracking of AI Infrastructure Coordination Dynamics Across Geopolitical Blocs

Complete operational methodology for the Warmth Engine Observatory, enabling systematic tracking of AI infrastructure coordination dynamics across geopolitical blocs through verified events and mapped coordination connections. No existing framework systematically documents coordination dynamics at the intersection of technology deployment, geopolitical alignment, and institutional governance. This manual addresses that gap by adapting proven frameworks: Basel Committee G-SIB Methodology (2018) for systemic importance assessment, ICD 203/206 and wire service standards for event verification, Keohane (1984) for coordination definition, and Finnemore & Sikkink (1998) for norm adoption thresholds. The methodology specifies a five-stage processing sequence: (1) Event Verification with gold-standard evidentiary requirements, (2) Significance Assessment via Keohane Pre-Filter, Basel 5-Factor, Route-Based, and PISA-5 frameworks, (3) Tier Classification across coordination scales (T1 Cross-Bloc, T2 Between-Bloc, T3 Intra-Bloc), (4) Domain Classification across Energy/Infrastructure, Security, Technology, and Trade, and (5) Coordination Connection Mapping using a novel seven-type taxonomy with three confidence levels (CC-V, CC-E, CC-A). Industry tags — an 11-category taxonomy adapted from GICS identifying which specific industry each event's documented provisions most directly address — provide a distinct analytical layer applied during Phase 2. Environmental Nexus Tags (ENT-1 through ENT-5) identify environmental intersections across five dimensions, with the Warmth Engine Ratio (WER) as a summary metric. Original contributions include the seven-type Coordination Connection taxonomy (verified novel via research across 25+ platforms), the Principal AI Actors framework (7-dimension, ≥3 threshold) for tier classification, the T1/T2 principal actor asymmetry distinguishing actor-dependent cooperation from effect-dependent fragmentation, the five-type Environmental Nexus Tag taxonomy with the Warmth Engine Ratio (WER), the T2 Impact-Demonstrated Pathway, PIET and OEP as novel Stage 2 qualification pathways, the PISA-5 significance assessment framework, and the Route-Based qualification structure. The methodology achieves approximately 75% empirical grounding with approximately 25% category creator calibration. This document can be read independently. Readers seeking calibration justifications may consult the companion Methodology Rationale. Version 1.3 (April 2026) introduces Environmental Nexus Tags (ENT-1 through ENT-5) and the Warmth Engine Ratio (WER) for environmental intersection identification (Chapter 8), Analytical Framework Boundaries documentation (§2.9), source accommodation alignment (§3.4.11), conflict-era source currency adjustment (§3.4.12), Stage 2 qualification pathways for Corporate Strategic Disclosure (§3.5, Option E) and Defence Appropriation Evidence (§3.5, Option F), the Type 2 Level 5 Operational Evidence requirement (§3.7), the corporate product release diagnostic (§3.14.1), and the Principal AI Actors framework (§5.3) for tier classification.