Teetering on the brink of debt and hunger: Empirical examination of the linkages between external debt and food security in Africa

• Debt servicing exerts stronger negative effects than debt stock across all food security dimensions and child stunting. • Multilateral loans improve food security and reduce stunting, whereas bilateral and private loans worsen food insecurity. • Debt-food security linkages persist across income groups, import dependency, & infrastructure levels with varying intensit. • External debt reduces agricultural value added, a key channel undermining long-term food security outcomes. • The debt-food security nexus shows nonlinear dynamics, with thresholds below which borrowing may support food systems, but excessive levels exacerbate insecurity. Debt accumulation and food insecurity are two pressing challenges confronting developing countries, yet evidence on their link remains limited, particularly in Africa. This study uses balanced panel data from 32 African countries (2012–2022) to examine how external debt stock and servicing affect food security. Results support the notion that “the dose makes the poison”: higher debt stock undermines food security, with effects differing across its dimensions. Elevated debt stock is also associated with higher child stunting, reflecting long-term nutritional risks. Debt servicing has an even stronger negative effect, worsening availability, affordability, safety and quality of food, as well as child nutrition. Disaggregated analysis shows that debt sources matter: multilateral loans improve food security and reduce stunting, while bilateral and private loans have the opposite effect. These adverse effects persist across income levels, food-import dependency and infrastructural development, though with varying intensity. The findings highlight the need for African countries to balance external borrowing with effective debt management and channel borrowed funds into productive, sustainability-enhancing investments that strengthen food systems and protect vulnerable populations, particularly children.