The Permafrost Gap in the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement: Toward a New International Instrument

This working paper presents the first structured analysis in international environmental law doctrineof the normative gap relating to permafrost degradation within the UNFCCC and Paris Agreementframework. Permafrost covers approximately 14 million km² of land, stores ~1,500 Gt of organiccarbon -- nearly twice the atmospheric stock -- and is degrading at an accelerating rate. Despitesatisfying the legal definition of 'adverse effects of climate change' under Article 1(1) UNFCCC, nooperative provision of the Convention or the Paris Agreement establishes obligations specific to thecryosphere. The paper identifies five dimensions of this gap -- from Article 4(1)(d) UNFCCC to theNDC system -- and argues for the optimal format of a new instrument: a Protocol to the UNFCCC onthe Protection of Permafrost and Management of Degradation Risks (modelled on the MontrealProtocol). The Protocol incorporates a monitoring mechanism through GTN-P, a failure to adaptliability standard, an Arctic Adaptation Fund, and protection of indigenous peoples' rights. The paperis addressed to the ICJ Advisory Opinion of 23 July 2025 as operationalising its due diligencestandard with respect to slow-onset events of cryospheric origin.