Lost wanderlust: accident risk, cultural attraction and safety image shaping Western and Eastern travelers' avoidance and cautious behavior in Africa

Purpose This study investigates the interplay between specific risk dimensions (accident, financial, and political) and cognitive image perceptions (cultural attractions and safety) in shaping travel avoidance versus cautious travel behavior toward Africa. Furthermore, it examines how these relationships vary across Western and Eastern source markets. Design/methodology/approach A cross-sectional survey of international travelers with prior experience in African destinations was administered via multiple crowdsourcing platforms. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) in AMOS tested the proposed framework and hypotheses. Multi-group analysis (MGA) compared path differences between Western and Eastern respondents. Findings The results indicate that specific risks exert both positive and negative influences on cognitive images. Notably, while accident risk was the sole predictor of travel avoidance, a combination of accident risk, financial risk and cultural image significantly shaped cautious travel behavior. Furthermore, multi-group analysis revealed pronounced behavioral differences between Western and Eastern tourists. Practical implications Destination marketers and policymakers should counter political-instability narratives through localized media communication, strengthen safety standards to address accident concerns and improve financial security (secure, seamless digital payments and fraud protection) to reduce perceived financial risk while protecting cultural image. Tailor actions by source market: emphasize digital financial integration for Eastern tourists and visible safety assurances with consistent security messaging for Western travelers. Originality/value This study contributes to cognitive dissonance theory by showing how travelers reconcile negative risk cognitions with favorable cognitive images of African destinations, resulting not only in avoidance but also in cautious travel as a dissonance-reduction response. It further demonstrates that this reconciliation process varies by source-market origin, identifying cultural origin as a boundary condition for dissonance-based risk processing.