Developing PPE management tools for use in a pandemic

In early 2020, facilities across the United States and the world struggled to secure personal protective equipment (PPE) to protect their staff from COVID-19 during an international shortage. A sharp increase in PPE demand, coupled with dwindling supply, resulted in a need for strategies and tools to assist workplaces in calculating PPE burn rate and predicting future PPE needs. This study describes the development and potential use of a model-based approach for forecasting PPE demand for future pandemics or other disasters that require PPE. This simple-to-use modeling tool was developed to assist facilities that lack adequate PPE management systems, allowing users to track what PPE items they have on hand and how quickly their PPE supply is depleting. The modeling tool builds on previous efforts to understand PPE consumption, such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Excel-based PPE Burn Rate Calculator and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health's (NIOSH) PPE Tracker Mobile Application. These tools were modifiable enough to use in a variety of settings, including healthcare, public safety, and correctional facilities, and were widely used for PPE management during the COVID-19 pandemic. The modeling approach described here can incorporate scenario-specific information into future PPE planning, rather than relying solely on historical consumption patterns. Hypothetical scenarios are presented to demonstrate the use of the tools. Results of this study indicate that PPE needs can be heavily influenced by local conditions. Predictive models for PPE needs may allow for increased efficiency, reduced waste, and improved worker protection.